The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space

Intercontinental Exchange’s move to invest up to $2 billion into Polymarket and Kalshi’s $300 million financing have turned a once-niche corner of crypto into a mainstream trading category.

"The real prize for ICE is not just clearing contracts but monetizing the data, selling odds as sentiment factors alongside rates and credit where every rumor pays a fee," said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and CIO at Running Point Capital Advisors, told Reuters.

But the prediction market boom is the culmination of years of technical experiments, regulatory fights, and product re-thinking, not a passing trend.

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